Looking Forward - What to Expect in 2021.

As COVID-19 continues to mutate, new strains have appeared in over 30 countries, one of which, titled ‘VUI-202012/01’, was first reported in the UK on the 14th of December and is 70% more transmissible than the original. As a consequence, much of the UK has been placed under heavy restrictions to reduce strain upon the National Health Service. Fortunately, Health Secretary Matt Hancock has declared that, although its numbers “are increasing rapidly”, there is little chance that it will be able to evade vaccines.

Everyone yearns for the pandemic to die down; whether this is realistic is uncertain. Two vaccines have been approved in the UK; 950, 000 people have received the first of two doses of a vaccine produced by American pharmaceutical company Pfizer in partnership with German biotechnology firm BioNTech. Another vaccine designed by a team of researchers based at Oxford University and produced by biopharmaceutical company AstraZeneca has been approved by UK regulators and will be distributed beginning January 4th. However, only priority groups are being targeted by the Government’s vaccination program, meaning that initially, only 25 million people will be vaccinated, leaving much of the population vulnerable and herd immunity unattainable. Despite this, the Prime Minister expects an easing in restrictions later in the year if the combination of vaccines and tiering help “drive down the virus”.

Unfortunately, analysts predict the economy will suffer long-term damage – Britain has the highest death toll in Europe and the greatest decrease in GDP, 19.8% in the second quarter of 2020. The hospitality industry has suffered greatly, with many regions placed in tier 4. The economic recovery initiated by the Government’s ‘Eat Out to Help Out’ scheme was thwarted by the closure of restaurants in tier 4 areas. Many workers wish for the eventual mass roll-out of a vaccine to ease restrictions, boosting consumer spending and saving their industry. The director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, Tony Danker, predicts a full recovery by 2022. He has stated that “we simply must find new ways to get businesses investing at the start of 2021 if we are to fast-forward the economy", suggesting that there is still hope for shops.

Despite this, the new year holds several promising developments. Upcoming events include the Olympics. Delayed due to the travel restrictions, Tokyo will host the highly-anticipated sporting event between the 24th of July and the 9th of August. In terms of technology, 5G data plans will likely become more affordable, offering faster download speeds. Many cities have already received 5G masts, and the Government is aiming for nationwide coverage by 2027. Moreover, organisations have discovered the benefits of remote work – polls suggest that a vast majority of remote workers are willing to continue with their current arrangements. Perhaps we will see a shift away from offices?

As we bid farewell to 2020, we enter 2021 with vaccines, knowledge, and hope.