When Will the Brexit Deadlock Conclude?

What has happened since the membership referendum on June 23rd, 2016?

Immediately after the result of the poll, in which 51% of voters elected for Britain to leave the EU, was released David Cameron stepped down from his position as prime minister, stating “I do not think it would be right for me to try to be the captain that steers our country to its next destination” in his resignation speech. Following a conservative leadership election, Theresa May was elected to be the second female prime minister.

Under her leadership, Britain invoked Article 50 of the treaty of the European Union on the 29th of March 2017, preceding futile negotiations between her Conservative government and the European Union. Proposed deals have been continuously rejected due to opposition from both by the Chief Negotiator appointed by the European Commission, Michel Barnier, and parliament itself. The original date of departure was desired to be two years from the enaction of Article 50 but elapsed after MPs rejected her revised Brexit Deal, following the rejection of the Chequers agreement, which proposed terms for the EU and Britain’s future relationship, in September 2018. This led to May’s request for an extension of the Article 50 period of negotiation until June 30th on the 5th of April. Instead, the EU chose to extend the period to October 31st or June 1st if the UK chose not to hold an election for the European Parliament in May, or the first day of the month after a withdrawal deal is passed. Despite these extensions, having faced numerous votes of no-confidence due to her inability to pass such a deal, Theresa May resigned as prime minister on the 24th of May, triggering yet another Conservative Party leadership contest, culminating in Boris Johnson accepting the position of prime minister.

Recently, in September, Johnson chose to end the parliamentary session, which by then had been the longest since the English Civil War, claiming to be using the period to decide a new agenda. Parliament returning just 17 days before the deadline given by the EU. Although their revised ‘EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill’ was approved by parliament, but the motion for it to be completed before the 31st October was defeated. This resulted in The European council offering the third extension until the end of January 2020. Furthermore, Johnson called for a General election to provide an opportunity to strengthen the Conservative Party’s majority in parliament, due to their reliance on an agreement with the Democratic Unionist Party (whom they clashed with over the regulations at the Northern Irish border) signed by May in order to support her minority government established following the 2017 General election – which was held for similar reasons.

How can the General election change this?

The major parties have laid down their manifestos in time for the upcoming election, which they will enact if voted into power. Each party have addressed the issue of Brexit differently; the Conservatives wish to start passing a withdrawal deal before the end of the year, to ensuring that Britain will leave the EU in January – increasing the probability of a ‘No-deal’ Brexit. If the government agree to a Brexit without a negotiated deal it is predicted the British public would suffer due to increased food and utility prices - moreover, settled EU nationals would have to apply for special status to continue to work in the UK). This is dissimilar to Labour, who would negotiate an entirely new agreement with the EU within three months, before holding a referendum over whether the deal should be passed – with an option for Britain to remain in the UK. However, the Liberal Democrats would revoke Article 50 entirely.

Due to the great uncertainty regarding the future of the United Kingdom’s relationship with the European Union, it is clear is that Brexit will continue to be prevalent within UK politics for some time to come.